On predicting, prices and electing Mervyn King’s heir

26 Jul

Apologies for the lack of posts of late. As some of my readers will know, I am now writing for the Economist. Which means slightly more restrained, less exclamatory writing! (And invariably economic.) I’ll keep you updated with my recent activity.

Inflation is now 2.4%. I have argued for the past year that growth – not prices – is and should be Britain’s main worry. Here I offer my thoughts:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/07/inflation

There seems to be much fury directed at Mervyn King recently. He has far more power now than MPs, who can only carp. So should we elect his successor? Here I warn against it:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/07/monetary-policy-4

Markets can predict better than experts, a new paper indicates. But should we take note of predictions? Here I argue we shouldn’t:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/07/prediction-markets

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